Music · resolved market
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4724994b9ff7278c88e97f297d8de51d9150f4110a4865e2778e48c192363433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x351a…ae05backed Yes | 10c | 2,422$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 69c | 1,532$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked No | 72c | 1,442$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,219$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed No | 64c | 1,070$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 72c | 914.9$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.9 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 20c | 900$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed Yes | 7c | 783.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed Yes | 31c | 770.72$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.17 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 68c | 769.79$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.42 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 24c | 743$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 36c | 733$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Yes | 36c | 731$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…4679backed Yes | 30c | 726.09$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 24c | 671$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccd…47f0backed Yes | 24c | 592.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 28c | 555$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 36c | 549$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 64c | 549$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 28c | 546$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…a45cbacked Yes | 12c | 542.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…4e6ebacked Yes | 22c | 540.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 73c | 540.04$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked No | 76c | 517$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…5b28backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed No | 76c | 496$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 76c | 491$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5475…30debacked Yes | 22c | 483.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…b549backed Yes | 22c | 458.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 8c | 445.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 64c | 394$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 70c | 380.04$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 78c | 333.09$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 79c | 332.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 28c | 327$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 31c | 313$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…6ea4backed Yes | 14c | 250.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…a15bbacked Yes | 21c | 248.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 21c | 243.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 67c | 242.38$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 222.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…b6ecbacked Yes | 13c | 182.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…1490backed Yes | 11c | 175.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…d70dbacked Yes | 19c | 152.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 151.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d12…ab54backed Yes | 12c | 136.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…c49fbacked Yes | 43c | 122.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 26cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…648ebacked Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…e697backed Yes | 18c | 103.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…66fbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e0…19b9backed Yes | 22c | 91.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed No | 62c | 84.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 78.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd04…15ffbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 79c | 65.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…4ac3backed Yes | 27c | 55.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd488…4bb3backed Yes | 20c | 54.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…5ba8backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…05b3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked No | 60c | 48.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 62c | 36.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 62c | 33.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 60c | 31.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccb…709bbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 75c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 62c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Armenia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Austria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Azerbaijan be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Belgium be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Czechia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Estonia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Latvia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Luxembourg be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Switzerland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.