TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,634 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b35…4a36backed Yes6c1,841$117 inLost-$116.622425%6 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…0ac6backed Yes8c662.01$50 inLost-$49.971643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes8c557.48$45 inLost-$44.65633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44fe…7e51backed Yes5c413.29$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes5c410$21 inLost-$20.5150%0 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes6c317.54$18 inLost-$181127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa95…af2cbacked Yes5c306.12$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes10c211.76$21 inLost-$21.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd7…047abacked Yes7c208.83$15 inLost-$15277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes7c200$13 inLost-$13911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-82.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c200$18 inLost-$184629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9be…ab71backed Yes11c157.01$17 inLost-$16.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes9c115$10 inLost-$10.354654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0116…fdf7backed Yes15c74.47$11 inLost-$11.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No75c32$24 inWon+$83953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.