TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,480 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0419…a533backed Yes6c5,400$339 inLost-$339.34616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fe…a7a5backed Yes9c3,371$298 inLost-$298.32156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba03…f857backed Yes1c1,598$15 inLost-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes3c1,442$41 inLost-$41.0614315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecd9…ebc3backed Yes9c1,232$116 inLost-$115.662025%5 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes4c1,189$51 inLost-$51.113625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…f3a1backed Yes4c1,183$50 inLost-$50417.3%3 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-79.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a9…c826backed Yes4c752.79$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c732.79$24 inLost-$23.951478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes3c710.59$21 inLost-$20.664418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-38.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c689.83$39 inLost-$39.324629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x772c…0151backed Yes15c675.84$100 inLost-$100287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+227%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes5c627.72$33 inLost-$33.422821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeeb…a427backed Yes4c625.1$23 inLost-$2340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe389…459fbacked Yes6c405$24 inLost-$23.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes7c392.9$27 inLost-$27.4516334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb424…3b71backed Yes6c329.99$21 inLost-$20.914318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes5c235.12$11 inLost-$11.271533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+65.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes8c200$15 inLost-$15.2695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c200$12 inLost-$12.41074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef3…24a1backed Yes12c160.85$19 inLost-$18.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff2…6857backed Yes8c136.04$10 inLost-$10.24520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No80c80.5$64 inWon+$16.119939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.