TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,476 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc151…2501backed Yes8c3,108$250 inLost-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes4c2,000$80 inLost-$801560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9652…4287backed Yes18c1,081$191 inLost-$191.230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…d6d6backed Yes11c999.98$113 inLost-$113.4860%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes6c819.69$46 inLost-$45.631478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9785…17afbacked Yes13c733.37$92 inLost-$91.99616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+420.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea9a…64b1backed Yes8c609.97$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6071…e933backed Yes15c563.32$83 inLost-$82.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+228.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes6c504$30 inLost-$30.248234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost-$1515119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes6c462.38$29 inLost-$28.583151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes8c439.16$37 inLost-$37.072821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes13c420.88$56 inLost-$55.993622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-58.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ac1…8b5bbacked Yes13c400.41$50 inLost-$50.312626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes8c395.68$32 inLost-$31.65349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes9c385.99$34 inLost-$34.114315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeebe…5d9bbacked Yes13c370.95$48 inLost-$47.922030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c367.34$40 inLost-$39.824629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b2…6a55backed Yes5c366.98$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a37…f948backed Yes9c288.54$25 inLost-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80d3…ad70backed Yes4c287.72$12 inLost-$12.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eaa…595abacked Yes7c280.18$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c68…1821backed Yes11c257.03$29 inLost-$29.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes4c245.4$11 inLost-$10.871625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-53.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes7c215.1$14 inLost-$14.466926.1%18 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+136.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a3…f425backed Yes8c195.5$16 inLost-$15.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No76c178.57$136 inWon+$42.474358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9da2…4b3bbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x307f…ae4cbacked Yes9c106.35$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked Yes14c103.73$15 inLost-$151030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0419…a533backed Yes13c100$13 inLost-$13616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ad…c163backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+109.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa1…a844backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No80c94.28$75 inWon+$18.861936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No80c73$58 inWon+$14.61838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+213.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.