Music · resolved market
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131d46741c652273670e757f77fc68d6b728da7a04419bc142fcc803d04d1774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13e0…38dfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,618$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 3c | 2,433$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +353%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…8818backed Yes | 4c | 2,209$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21de…77debacked Yes | 6c | 2,206$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…6696backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…bc60backed Yes | 7c | 1,690$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…9c9ebacked Yes | 4c | 888.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd7…047abacked Yes | 4c | 882.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…d4f8backed Yes | 4c | 845.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…3d5fbacked Yes | 2c | 845.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 807.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…a577backed Yes | 3c | 735.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 6c | 733.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 9c | 731.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 687.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…d6c9backed Yes | 3c | 632.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…3395backed Yes | 8c | 594.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 584$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…e1ddbacked Yes | 4c | 476.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…81cebacked Yes | 32c | 310$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…3b71backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 281.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…c49fbacked Yes | 19c | 261.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 26cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…cd62backed No | 78c | 202.28$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…a8c9backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 58c | 113.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 15c | 102.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…11cebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…d901backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 83.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…aca1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 65c | 19.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +213.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 76c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Armenia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Austria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Azerbaijan be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Belgium be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Czechia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Estonia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Latvia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Luxembourg be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Switzerland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.