Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7d813243d0942fe60d91c4f81ba33aaea7b21e37cfc8c51a8d7ccef2463c91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c95…bb48backed Yes | 0c | 11,951$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 9,522$6,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.11 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…cf9dbacked Yes | 46c | 5,666$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,623.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 61c | 5,183$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.15 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…8a24backed Yes | 2c | 4,913$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 21c | 4,650$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.57 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…34d0backed Yes | 53c | 4,073$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…9869backed Yes | 0c | 4,061$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…a899backed Yes | 1c | 3,903$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked No | 63c | 3,264$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 35c | 3,000$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 23c | 2,806$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…3f99backed Yes | 2c | 2,761$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 18c | 2,617$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.29 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 60c | 2,478$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.78 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes | 65c | 2,266$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 49c | 2,156$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…4f6cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,886$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,766$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 52c | 1,576$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7246backed No | 58c | 1,500$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec03…c1d4backed Yes | 1c | 1,462$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 69c | 1,438$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 71c | 1,389$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked Yes | 36c | 1,336$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 30c | 1,321$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 39c | 1,256$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1e…df14backed Yes | 1c | 1,252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 60c | 1,209$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.08 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 1,155$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.24 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 55c | 1,043$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 50c | 1,010$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…c970backed Yes | 60c | 939.15$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 45c | 927.8$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 33c | 925$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…aab6backed Yes | 1c | 827.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 61c | 820$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 71c | 818$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 29c | 818$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…382dbacked Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 56c | 792$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 44c | 792$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 56c | 780.62$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.62 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd7…4c73backed Yes | 65c | 763.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed No | 55c | 752$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked No | 52c | 730$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 60c | 723.21$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb81…585dbacked Yes | 5c | 706.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 29c | 689$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed Yes | 43c | 682$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 57c | 681$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 52c | 679$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 48c | 679$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 46c | 648.03$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.82 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 643.07$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.18 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 46c | 629$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 44c | 607.69$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.39 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 61c | 602$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 31c | 589.45$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.81 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 43c | 587.66$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.65 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…1222backed Yes | 37c | 575.2$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 37c | 574$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 59c | 572$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 51c | 567.8$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…bd19backed Yes | 57c | 565.64$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 54c | 561$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 48c | 551$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.48 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 56c | 549.73$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 48c | 538$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed Yes | 11c | 520.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 31c | 509$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 54c | 504$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 67c | 495$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 486.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes | 31c | 476$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…34bcbacked Yes | 31c | 468.75$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 456$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 31c | 453$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 46c | 436$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 67c | 430$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 422.65$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…0f2dbacked Yes | 55c | 420.63$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 63c | 387$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 41c | 370$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 46c | 352.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 333.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 328.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ba…40d9backed No | 79c | 319.66$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked Yes | 33c | 307.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed No | 38c | 302.43$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…e281backed Yes | 63c | 294.2$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…9e1ebacked Yes | 28c | 290$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87a…f850backed Yes | 46c | 276.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…f2a3backed No | 79c | 275.31$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed No | 42c | 273.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 44c | 263.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 52c | 214$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1625 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.