Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15cd5b2a70dabec9285f6ef1b1ecdf3c8d7fbb47f0add22e0ba7646ecdff9377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 70c | 538.4$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed No | 38c | 446$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 27c | 409.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed No | 33c | 367.84$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 62c | 347$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 31c | 208.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 68c | 146.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ece3backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 90.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 71c | 88.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 70c | 71.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed No | 30c | 34.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 70c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…9930backed Yes | 69c | 19.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1625 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.