Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d06d3cca0760fed96d62b5fd2fde08990539293493f5b01bf64e1d1f91b115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 13c | 2,091$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd010…8c7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,771$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…a143backed Yes | 1c | 1,623$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,440$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,369$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed Yes | 10c | 792.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked Yes | 12c | 637.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 7c | 584$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 13c | 527.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 471.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 360.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 13c | 295$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 13c | 294$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked Yes | 13c | 253$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 249.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 153$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…1222backed Yes | 10c | 146.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 100.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c13…bceebacked Yes | 22c | 98.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…56e4backed Yes | 24c | 82.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…356abacked Yes | 34c | 59.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 56c | 41.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1625 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.