Music · resolved market
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13c5d5e2d4cf8051a322fa919ceaa5c040c258a78c934d59defc1e6009381b46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed No | 27c | 5,599$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 71c | 2,327$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.57 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed Yes | 74c | 2,327$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…f919backed Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,952$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 14c | 1,921$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.62 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed No | 19c | 1,770$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked No | 19c | 1,518$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 18c | 1,444$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 19c | 788$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 773.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed No | 19c | 714$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 21c | 477.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…4b62backed Yes | 68c | 470.67$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 72c | 448$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked Yes | 65c | 447.96$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6865backed No | 35c | 420$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 60c | 415.96$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 5c | 404.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 399.1$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 350.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked Yes | 64c | 342$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed No | 36c | 331$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…3b94backed No | 3c | 311.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 24c | 297.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 36c | 290$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes | 64c | 279$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 19c | 272$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…39cebacked No | 12c | 253.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 10c | 243.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a3…ce21backed Yes | 62c | 240.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6f…e536backed No | 15c | 200.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 18c | 185$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…d981backed Yes | 62c | 176.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…3ff7backed No | 29c | 174.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 18c | 168$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…5a97backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…e3d1backed Yes | 65c | 153.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…4831backed No | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 147.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 134.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 10c | 124.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…4008backed No | 36c | 107.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 14c | 107.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…76dfbacked No | 38c | 105.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…e5c4backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c9…dec1backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 69.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…79a0backed Yes | 74c | 63.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…2db0backed Yes | 63c | 63.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…223ebacked Yes | 52c | 62.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 63c | 45.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 30c | 44.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa706…42f0backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2115…80ccbacked No | 28c | 38.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc2…739fbacked No | 37c | 37.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 34.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…768cbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e12…948bbacked Yes | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes | 73c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…b92cbacked Yes | 80c | 20.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 75c | 16.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 75c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?this page
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be at least 900k?No won
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 300k and 400k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.