Music · resolved market
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 300k and 400k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x590430bdb99fa08d7ae14fbd7ca8fec607b9a6816c2840b5513626752afe10f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 15c | 1,005$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 22c | 997.91$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 15c | 970$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 78c | 572$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…4273backed Yes | 3c | 542.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89d…5d83backed Yes | 12c | 418.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 8c | 209.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 25c | 199.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…e923backed Yes | 29c | 173.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 7c | 154.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 20c | 146.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Yes | 27c | 138.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…bb84backed Yes | 16c | 98.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 94.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…b50cbacked Yes | 13c | 79.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74f…248cbacked Yes | 27c | 53.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60c…8e81backed Yes | 43c | 46.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 59c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 300k and 400k?this page
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be at least 900k?No won
- Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.