TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2115…80cc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.26
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+232.7%+$43.06
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.83
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.84
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+114.1%+$25.42
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.99
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+302.8%+$54.23
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+68.9%+$135.01
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+40.2%+$12.06
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Celtics (-10.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+112.9%+$31.55
Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Spread: 76ers (-3.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$14.46
76ers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Knicks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+153.2%+$61.42
Celtics vs. Cavaliersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+119%+$29.87
Bucks vs. Bullsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44.98
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.58
All 12 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.99
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.95
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 90°F or higher on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.04
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.45
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.15
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.25
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.55
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.65
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+88.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.08
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$5.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+36.6%+$16.48
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+36.4%+$50.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)backed Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.45
Hurricanes vs. Oilersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: MIR (-1.5) vs GnG Amazigh (+1.5)backed MIR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.59
Valorant: GnG Amazigh vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group Dbacked GnG Amazigh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+120.1%+$17.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.99
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+64.8%+$129.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+207.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+207.8%+$121.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$10.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.