NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d21214336d3e6f77d603dfed9ea890684af42bdbe809ddf251642eadb27837
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Devilsof Capitals, Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,614 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb12a…112abacked Devils | 68c | 1,600$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…b662backed Devils | 67c | 1,500$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Capitals | 32c | 927.48$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.79 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Capitals | 33c | 749.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…ba5bbacked Devils | 68c | 667.65$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.65 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3184…7a39backed Devils | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Devils | 67c | 580$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Capitals | 33c | 214.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Capitals | 33c | 193.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Devils | 67c | 147.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Devils | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Capitals | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 41c | 132.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Devils | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Devils | 67c | 106.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Devils | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Devils | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Devils | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Capitals | 47c | 96.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Capitals | 31c | 89.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Devils | 66c | 81.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Devils | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Capitals | 32c | 67.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Devils | 67c | 66.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Capitals | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Devils | 68c | 57.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Devils | 67c | 43.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Devils | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Devils | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals | 32c | 33.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…f88bbacked Devils | 67c | 33.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2115…80ccbacked Capitals | 37c | 33.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Capitals | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Devils | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Devils | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Devils | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Devils | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Devils | 51c | 23.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Devils | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Devils | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Devils | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Devils | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Devils vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.