NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf83ddb86774b1cfb8edf9cc0d91058ed438c3e5c15cd4c0889635762c29b281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,732 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 45c | 6,798$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,029.05 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 57c | 3,620$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.62 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 27c | 1,508$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.56 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 27c | 1,077$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.43 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 939$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.53 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 45c | 624.99$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 575.03$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.01 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 560.13$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.06 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…9740backed Under | 57c | 494.04$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 65c | 492.51$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 56c | 471$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.24 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd75…26cfbacked Under | 57c | 357.96$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ea…c078backed Under | 57c | 355.93$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…be61backed Over | 44c | 342.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…123dbacked Over | 44c | 342.63$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 55c | 296$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 288.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 75c | 218$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Over | 44c | 198.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 188.72$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 44c | 178.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…e905backed Over | 44c | 167.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 45c | 156$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Over | 44c | 129.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 56c | 116.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Under | 19c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 54.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Over | 46c | 45.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 26.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Devils vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.