NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c6ff2b7ee2018bc3d1c3ef7bf0162b39719ed8b312659728f783c571f3108ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,963 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 44c | 22,971$10,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,842.45 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 22,448$12,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,571.13 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 55c | 6,334$3,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,482.88 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 3,518$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.99 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.33 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 34c | 2,006$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.25 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,524$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.2 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 1,370$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.47 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 44c | 1,314$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.66 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 44c | 769.58$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.96 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…df85backed Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 423.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.63 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 60c | 326.15$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 41c | 237.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…400bbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 45c | 154.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaafd…6fd2backed Under | 45c | 141.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a7…4906backed Over | 56c | 140.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 138.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 55c | 105$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…59b9backed Over | 56c | 100.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0287…cc3cbacked Under | 45c | 95.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 72.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 64.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…8cd1backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 45c | 52.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 45c | 52.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 35.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…20e9backed Under | 44c | 35.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 47c | 26.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…bc35backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…39edbacked Over | 56c | 18.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Devils vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.