Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0490a7598d5f3efc402e714f425eee606552f1eb39017fb3954caa87e4ace8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9dd…b2a4backed No | 23c | 1,314$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 47c | 1,057$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.79 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…afcbbacked No | 7c | 993.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 15c | 880.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 2c | 684.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 660.72$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 626.33$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.6 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 14c | 504.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 14c | 472.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 427.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 401.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 367.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.31 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 74c | 342.04$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.47 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 48c | 340.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 17c | 338.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 17c | 309.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…3654backed Yes | 26c | 282.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 8c | 270.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked No | 6c | 263.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 22c | 255.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 77c | 254.62$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 22c | 241.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 32c | 238.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 13c | 230.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 223.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…44cfbacked Yes | 52c | 219.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked Yes | 65c | 208.36$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 197.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 45c | 195.02$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 51c | 190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 50c | 186.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 175.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 30c | 172.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 69c | 170.49$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 49c | 159.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 53c | 152.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 63c | 144.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 124.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes | 53c | 109.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 19c | 105.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 40c | 98.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…0208backed No | 13c | 93.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…62ebbacked Yes | 72c | 78.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 17c | 78.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 39c | 77.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 79c | 77.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 65c | 76.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 67c | 74.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 64c | 68.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 74c | 67.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 20c | 67.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 74c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 50c | 64.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 31c | 63.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4053…e834backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 58c | 60.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 64c | 57.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…5ce0backed Yes | 48c | 53.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 71c | 53.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 58c | 52.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 75c | 51.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 21c | 51.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…3f0dbacked No | 80c | 51.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…b52ebacked Yes | 63c | 50.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Yes | 45c | 50.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 43c | 50.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 50c | 48.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 57c | 47.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 50c | 46.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 43c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 33c | 43.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 23c | 43.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 52c | 42.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 58c | 41.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2115…80ccbacked No | 29c | 41.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 73c | 41.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007e…c290backed Yes | 63c | 39.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 34c | 39.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818f…139bbacked Yes | 45c | 39.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 77c | 39.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 52c | 38.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…3d3ebacked No | 46c | 34.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 50c | 34.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked No | 39c | 33.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 32.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…bdfdbacked No | 47c | 32.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 70c | 32.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 64c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 56c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87be…73cdbacked Yes | 80c | 29.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 73c | 29.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.