Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ef341954cf8fcd1863e3ba424f29a701c86b5c39f846dffe4d831c1c072ad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed Yes | 3c | 44,315$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,785$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.61 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 7c | 1,122$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,009$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 12c | 654.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 625.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 9c | 621.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 3c | 581.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…b2a4backed Yes | 11c | 554.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 5c | 510.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 3c | 407.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 12c | 403.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 397.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 6c | 358.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 3c | 342.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 341.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 6c | 334.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 329.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 325.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 6c | 306.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 7c | 302.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 8c | 296.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 5c | 266.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…fadbbacked Yes | 10c | 253.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 13c | 247.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 17c | 237.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 228.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 6c | 227.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 10c | 222.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 8c | 215.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 14c | 212.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 18c | 196.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e3…fd66backed Yes | 10c | 187.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 15c | 182.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 165.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 7c | 157.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 10c | 151.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 14c | 149.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 148.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 13c | 147.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked Yes | 15c | 127.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 14c | 127.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…bd6bbacked Yes | 14c | 106.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…a944backed Yes | 13c | 105.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 14c | 96.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 75c | 79.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 15c | 75.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 75c | 63.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 20c | 56.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354a…ae3ebacked No | 75c | 34.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.