TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7407…19bebacked Yes28c1,294$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.321533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No74c927.27$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.348236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes27c884$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.683946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No74c858$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.081850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed No73c812$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.241741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed No74c807$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.821931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes25c801.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No72c796$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.882352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes33c759.98$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.1817017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed Yes26c735$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.091353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed No74c735$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.12343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes25c692$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1733056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafea…230bbacked Yes26c686$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.361346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed No74c667$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.421827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed Yes26c632$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.322147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed No74c621$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.461457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b02…cfc1backed No73c595$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed No73c591$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.571145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f0…669dbacked No75c577$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.252347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed Yes27c515$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.052250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82e4…fa57backed Yes27c513$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.511145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed No74c509$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.341546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes27c506$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.622733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No75c497$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.252326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked No75c483$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.753540%14 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes26c482$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.323938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No73c450$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.54542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes26c445$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.72343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No72c442$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.763141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed No74c436$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes26c426$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.761442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed Yes26c422$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.721921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes26c413$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.383240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6768…692dbacked Yes62c405.36$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes25c399.95$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9928528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No63c397.04$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.1426641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes26c396$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.962755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes24c392$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.083740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No76c392$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.082236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed No74c373$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.982540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a6a…5522backed Yes29c341.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed No73c324$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.483246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa46d…d66ebacked Yes26c323.12$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes25c316$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes25c285$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.253745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c284.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No72c276$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.281931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes26c271$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.461625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes27c266$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.821656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+58.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes26c238$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed No74c238$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes27c220$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.42951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed No73c212$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.241250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes28c210$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x546a…1abbbacked No74c205$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes26c199.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.831,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes26c199$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.741330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No73c185$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.953240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes25c181$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+93.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes26c173$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.984334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes26c152$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.523141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No60c149.6$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.845532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked No74c148$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.483745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No67c135.29$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3310244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes27c121$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.673652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed Yes26c121$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.462548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf993…00cdbacked No74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-55%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes29c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.417821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad04…dce5backed Yes25c118$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c117.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3948414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No75c115$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.751060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes29c104.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No73c104$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.082744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes23c103.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.582020%4 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes26c103$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.782171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+90.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-87%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed Yes26c99.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.871154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No73c99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.731428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No73c86.64$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.325324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No75c74.27$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.793745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No71c71.01$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.436729.9%20 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes27c68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.361625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed Yes26c68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.64358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed Yes25c58.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1797…d1f1backed No74c58.35$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23e8…60b1backed Yes26c53.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b42…6554backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+47.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefe8…e0f2backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No76c49.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9613130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes26c46.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1290%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf129…6899backed Yes28c44.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1614…68fabacked Yes28c43.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No78c39.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.72742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes28c39.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No70c37.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3520668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No72c22.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.315641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…6af7backed No74c21.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c26…b973backed No74c20.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.