Movies · resolved market

Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x530792425575848dc201c51f08123db35c6de4da068ac28d8f6e4f8853a20729

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,098 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed No	70c	1,975$1,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.15	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No	57c	1,110$633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.3	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dfd…4f13backed Yes	32c	1,047$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes	43c	865$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.95	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes	43c	850$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.5	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed Yes	43c	662$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.66	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes	45c	607$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.15	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed Yes	44c	594$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.36	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed No	58c	564$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.88	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed Yes	43c	563$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.09	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No	57c	546$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.86	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes	42c	546$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.32	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes	43c	537.79$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.25	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes	35c	490.48$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes	43c	480$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.4	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No	57c	471$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.53	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed No	57c	462$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.66	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+3.0wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed No	57c	438$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.34	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No	56c	435$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.4	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No	56c	433$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.52	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	59c	409$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.77	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No	55c	402$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.9	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	67c	393$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.08	346	51.2%177 W · 169 L	+17.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed No	57c	389$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.27	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No	57c	375$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.25	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed Yes	42c	345$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.9	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No	58c	311$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.62	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No	57c	311$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.73	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	31c	300$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes	43c	280$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.4	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	70c	269.69$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.6	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No	57c	266.2$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.13	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	57c	249.35$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.88	156	41.7%65 W · 91 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes	43c	246$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.78	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-5.4wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed No	57c	244$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.92	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f55…580cbacked Yes	41c	241.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2100…2e40backed Yes	42c	238.17$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	+65.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f83…7bf4backed Yes	43c	232.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked No	57c	224$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.32	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	62c	196.87$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.34	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes	37c	191.54$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed No	58c	180$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.6	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	42cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfef6…e212backed Yes	29c	169.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked Yes	42c	164$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.88	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked Yes	44c	158$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.52	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cfb…f786backed Yes	42c	150$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes	41c	134.15$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+20%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65ae…e13abacked Yes	44c	130$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.2	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	37c	129.44$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.83	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes	36c	122.49$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	198	36.4%72 W · 126 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No	72c	119$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.32	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes	32c	109.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.16	143	37.1%53 W · 90 L	-10.4wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked Yes	33c	104.04$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.33	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No	57c	101$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.43	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	90	1.1%1 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	6cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed Yes	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	29cpaid	-87%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	116	4.3%5 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed No	59c	100$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	43cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	58c	90.69$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.09	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes	32c	90.37$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No	61c	72.81$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.24	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ed…5edebacked Yes	35c	71.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	58c	67.85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.31	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes	45c	66.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	79.3%23 W · 6 L	+5.9wins	+0.20per pick	59cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb8c1…98a7backed Yes	43c	51.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes	32c	51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No	59c	50.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.69	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8500…3de4backed Yes	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd866…5056backed Yes	41c	48.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Yes	37c	43$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed No	55c	35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.75	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes	31c	33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	45c	30.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	61c	27$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.53	206	68.9%142 W · 64 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	70cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes	45c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed No	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	-6.9wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-43%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5399…4b4fbacked Yes	60c	24.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	64cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked No	55c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No	65c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
Will "No Other Choice" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Will "Sirāt" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Will "The Secret Agent" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Will "The Voice of Hind Rajab" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event