Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f3ba11e19613e0aff7e1a11cd15706fcd826456296d8f6203ccaead7e13798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa87d…e4bfbacked Under | 12c | 11,922$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 13c | 2,762$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.41 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Under | 19c | 2,185$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Under | 19c | 1,645$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Under | 19c | 1,458$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 13c | 1,199$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.89 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Under | 19c | 1,073$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed Under | 19c | 1,002$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Under | 19c | 912$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed Under | 19c | 810$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Under | 19c | 801$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Under | 19c | 780$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Under | 19c | 715$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Under | 19c | 663$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked Under | 19c | 642$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Under | 19c | 569$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Under | 19c | 560$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Under | 19c | 485$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Under | 19c | 404$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Under | 19c | 387$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 12c | 348.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 12c | 306.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 810 | 53.6%434 W · 376 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Under | 12c | 229.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 204 | 25%51 W · 153 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Under | 15c | 218.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 13c | 209.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Under | 11c | 121.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 12c | 92.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 337 | 51.3%173 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…5715backed Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.