Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x516c22a499415ca27e20955a2a5c55df0a31a0d511533ec30cb0f687e0d6921c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x128f…c388backed Over | 33c | 8,473$2,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,796.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…7b35backed Under | 67c | 2,431$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 2,414$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.73 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 30c | 2,394$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.41 | 1,244 | 49.4%615 W · 629 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…5b2cbacked Under | 67c | 2,386$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…708ebacked Under | 67c | 2,360$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…c033backed Under | 71c | 2,210$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Under | 76c | 1,899$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.48 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 74c | 1,685$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.21 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 26c | 1,600$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 560 | 51.4%288 W · 272 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…934fbacked Under | 67c | 1,394$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Under | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 26c | 1,100$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 900.25$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.89 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…c7e0backed Under | 67c | 891.04$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 67c | 805.28$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.2 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…1619backed Over | 32c | 800.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Over | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b4…53ebbacked Under | 68c | 599.99$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 25c | 598.67$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 25c | 583.12$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 69c | 507.67$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.67 | 223 | 56.5%126 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 32c | 495.09$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Under | 75c | 485.33$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…c873backed Under | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…c484backed Under | 71c | 400$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…3efbbacked Over | 26c | 370.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…c2aebacked Over | 30c | 327.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Under | 68c | 320$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 7c | 286$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 28c | 266.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 27c | 234.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 337 | 51.3%173 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…d913backed Under | 74c | 190$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36c…49e5backed Under | 76c | 132.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 22c | 132.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 79c | 126.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f42…0524backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 24c | 100.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…6dfcbacked Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 72c | 81.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Under | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…fc98backed Over | 18c | 62.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…5978backed Under | 80c | 62.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Under | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 28c | 51.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d81…c50fbacked Under | 79c | 50.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 204 | 25%51 W · 153 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 22c | 47.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 72c | 41.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 31c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…aacdbacked Under | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 73 | 69.9%51 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdf…9ecebacked Under | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Under | 75c | 25.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47d0…5438backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 75c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 73c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 220 | 57.7%127 W · 93 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6e…6e40backed Under | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 79c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.