TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,230

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,657 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a93…bd58backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes3c5,060$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.047812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes12c1,796$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.6917740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f31…7f8ebacked Yes5c1,085$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6311…0b56backed Yes3c1,024$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+246.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes26c840.04$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.213033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes16c830.09$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.213622.2%8 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes3c800$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0333741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed Yes12c796$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+84.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes30c788$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes15c773$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.951435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb0c…0ab8backed Yes7c716.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c7…be6fbacked Yes12c673$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+62.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes12c645$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.42948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c614.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.782282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes12c532$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.841643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes12c526$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.121450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+40.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes15c503$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.451435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes15c493$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f183backed No70c479$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.71258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes17c452.06$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7615743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…5c87backed Yes5c446.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.09837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked Yes12c445$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes6c442.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5715324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes3c419.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.354814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes6c395$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed Yes11c388$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.681250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed Yes12c344$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes13c344$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No71c343$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.811855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked Yes29c343$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.811060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6509…4674backed Yes14c336$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed Yes12c318$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.162161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012139.7%48 W · 73 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c42…1616backed Yes26c289$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed No74c289$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.141662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87d6…9357backed Yes12c284$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x636c…ea28backed Yes12c248$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes10c203.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.315731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c180.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.624136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes10c176.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.632476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes7c166.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28129.6%24 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes13c160$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5610513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed Yes41c159$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.192347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed No59c159$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.191442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b4…85b5backed Yes27c158.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes9c157.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.914129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa756…b167backed Yes15c155$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.25128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-89.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked No70c154$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b34…9e82backed Yes16c152.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+154.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes12c147$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95c6…fbb0backed Yes18c142.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.821450%7 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+49%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes10c136.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.634195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc493…b8f3backed Yes14c125$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes11c100.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.563941%16 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db7…a678backed Yes70c100.14$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7769…9991backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+317.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57c8…a12fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed Yes15c98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes12c96.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed No70c95.8$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.743650%18 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7356…0b03backed Yes21c95.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207225%18 W · 54 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed No61c87$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.931136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed Yes39c87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.932060%12 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+131.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No64c74$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.641968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes36c74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.641050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes15c73.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.071540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed No74c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c63.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0734432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f33…81f6backed No70c59.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.76757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x340b…f8dcbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103234.4%11 W · 21 L+7.8wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+202.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6430…f4dbbacked Yes70c42.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No29c39.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2220243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No79c30.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4516173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a68…51d4backed Yes74c28.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2d…689fbacked No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc3b…92f8backed Yes75c18.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe8…6d0abacked No54c18.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.52728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.652466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+46.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.