Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa379b8ee37319494f5eaea63dc538df747e36f0a2b8d26ce8f0ff9c049701af2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 12c | 2,028$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,675$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 12c | 1,013$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 10c | 929$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 8c | 830.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…25a3backed Yes | 24c | 621$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 11c | 546$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 11c | 457$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 3c | 441.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…9e82backed Yes | 12c | 406.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 242.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 8c | 238.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 11c | 237.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 7c | 235.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 11c | 159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…4f5bbacked Yes | 10c | 152.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…6fb1backed Yes | 20c | 147.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a41…fc83backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…abc1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…6ed1backed Yes | 27c | 113.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…a12fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…515fbacked Yes | 21c | 72.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…538abacked Yes | 48c | 52.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 39.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 52c | 34.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 78c | 33.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 24.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb56f…3bb0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in February 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.