Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6d6987cf367d8a9930aa74310a5e7896febb49b6f96d42ad8e51ef4bade4c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked No | 68c | 2,955$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.45 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 31c | 2,352$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.91 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…0494backed Yes | 66c | 2,048$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,202$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…6d76backed No | 52c | 1,178$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 46c | 1,169$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 69c | 1,165$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.18 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 56c | 1,129$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.93 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 48c | 1,046$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 56c | 1,036$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 35c | 963$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 48c | 949$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 65c | 923$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed Yes | 6c | 882.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 60c | 868$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 40c | 830.17$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 51c | 818$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 64c | 804$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.56 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 44c | 777$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 46c | 776$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 755.17$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.42 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 738.65$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 40c | 733$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 53c | 730$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed Yes | 64c | 699$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 37c | 682.01$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 57c | 654$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 54c | 644$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 39c | 634$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 48c | 627$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 60c | 622$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed Yes | 48c | 614$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 50c | 602.08$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 39c | 593$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 40c | 591$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 39c | 584$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed Yes | 48c | 583$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 29c | 580$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 38c | 576$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 71c | 572$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…62ecbacked No | 60c | 562$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 79c | 553$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked No | 41c | 549$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 62c | 544$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 47c | 541.93$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed No | 52c | 539$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 61c | 537$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked No | 9c | 535$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed No | 60c | 528$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 59c | 528$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.52 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 40c | 528$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 42c | 527.56$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 36c | 527$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.28 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 49c | 507$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 17c | 498$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 37c | 495$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 49c | 492$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 40c | 489$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 21c | 486$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 53c | 486$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 52c | 483$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 49c | 482$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 48c | 479$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 45c | 474$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 51c | 472$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 52c | 467$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 62c | 464$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.68 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 38c | 464$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 56c | 463$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 50c | 453$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 52c | 449$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 53c | 446$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 61c | 445$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 74c | 442.4$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 49c | 442$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed Yes | 60c | 441$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked No | 52c | 439$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 53c | 438$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 22c | 434.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.72 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 52c | 431$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 51c | 422$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +55%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 62c | 417$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 38c | 417$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.54 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 54c | 415$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 46c | 415$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 414.71$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.02 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 63c | 412$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.56 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 50c | 412$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 49c | 411$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 60c | 400.65$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.58 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 48c | 385$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 52c | 385$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 44c | 380$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 44c | 379$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 33c | 358$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked No | 51c | 352.47$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No | 9c | 349$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 67c | 341$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 339.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.22 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.