Movies · resolved market
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d347a8d0fca0f8e4b6dc9603d9c5316f294b05e0cc1c70bb7276c80f9b33ca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,111 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 30c | 1,127$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.3 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 47c | 1,033$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 48c | 741$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 52c | 722$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 35c | 592$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 39c | 570$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 59c | 570$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed Yes | 65c | 555$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked Yes | 65c | 553$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed No | 58c | 511$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked No | 48c | 501.17$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 35c | 454$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 45c | 426$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 61c | 399$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 57c | 369$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked Yes | 42c | 368$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked No | 57c | 365$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…7289backed Yes | 42c | 348$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 42c | 345$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 330.87$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.57 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 41c | 325$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 57c | 309$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.87 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 43c | 309$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 61c | 294$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed No | 57c | 286$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes | 43c | 270$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 43c | 266$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 41c | 245$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 43c | 238$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 61c | 231$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 53c | 229$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 47c | 229$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 228$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…1cedbacked Yes | 31c | 227.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 65c | 226$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 211.03$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 205.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 57c | 204.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…1734backed No | 41c | 204$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…24d2backed No | 41c | 203$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…e74fbacked No | 41c | 203$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 200.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked No | 54c | 199.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 199.08$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07e…4447backed No | 41c | 199$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…b913backed No | 41c | 199$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 57c | 198$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…5f12backed No | 41c | 195$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 43c | 185$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…7228backed Yes | 31c | 179.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 167.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 47c | 160.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 57c | 153$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 43c | 153$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…0ef5backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…e409backed No | 41c | 149$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 52c | 139.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Yes | 35c | 130.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 35c | 124$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…9552backed Yes | 32c | 105.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 35c | 104.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 67c | 104.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f5…d878backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…738cbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…0344backed No | 38c | 99.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…635fbacked Yes | 59c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…51f6backed Yes | 59c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…3581backed Yes | 59c | 96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 39c | 95.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…33f3backed Yes | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…cdbbbacked Yes | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 92.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 65c | 91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…716abacked Yes | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…65a8backed Yes | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d4…c7e9backed Yes | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…abefbacked Yes | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfb…e474backed Yes | 59c | 89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dcc2backed Yes | 59c | 87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…31cabacked Yes | 59c | 86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c0…556bbacked Yes | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 76.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdc…6eb4backed Yes | 33c | 74.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…fe60backed Yes | 59c | 69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes | 51c | 68.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…cce2backed Yes | 38c | 66.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 60.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d37backed Yes | 35c | 57.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…cb87backed Yes | 35c | 57.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 54.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 43c | 52.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 64c | 50.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.