TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,111 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x10df…04a9backed Yes30c1,127$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.33125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed No47c1,033$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.952343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes48c741$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.681637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked No52c722$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked No35c592$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.83256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed No39c570$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.71457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+67.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes59c570$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes65c555$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.75850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5481…50ecbacked Yes65c553$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71fb…9b65backed No58c511$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+152.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fd4…c0febacked No48c501.17$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.171625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed No35c454$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No45c426$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.12231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes61c399$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No57c369$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8924634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6f…469fbacked Yes42c368$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.56633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked No57c365$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.951650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee6…7289backed Yes42c348$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes42c345$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.91136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No41c330.87$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.5715641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed No41c325$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed No57c309$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.872152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes43c309$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.873336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x636c…ea28backed Yes61c294$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.34944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…4578backed No57c286$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+58.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes43c270$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes43c266$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.381040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No41c245$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.552832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes43c238$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.343743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes61c231$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.91875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+143.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed Yes53c229$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.371662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No47c229$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.373751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes65c228$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked Yes31c227.94$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.523221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed Yes65c226$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.91540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No65c211.03$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5316741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes32c205.25$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.147020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Yes57c204.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcab8…1734backed No41c204$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a7…24d2backed No41c203$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x672b…e74fbacked No41c203$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c200.2$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0736538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40b5…596dbacked No54c199.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.28944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No76c199.08$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.58752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf07e…4447backed No41c199$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x863a…b913backed No41c199$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No57c198$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.141050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…5f12backed No41c195$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes43c185$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.55922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes43c180$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.42245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170e…7228backed Yes31c179.56$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.66333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No64c167.29$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes47c160.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4416453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No57c153$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.791822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes43c153$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.792050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x960a…0ef5backed Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a3…e409backed No41c149$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes52c139.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.212539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes37c135$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Yes35c130.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No35c124$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbe…85a3backed No74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29ff…9552backed Yes32c105.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No35c104.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7413337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No67c104.12$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.175215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…9c58backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f5…d878backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb632…738cbacked Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4e…0344backed No38c99.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes32c99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.061758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe10…635fbacked Yes59c97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbab9…51f6backed Yes59c97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…3581backed Yes59c96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes39c95.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0312938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3f…33f3backed Yes59c93$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f2…cdbbbacked Yes59c93$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No44c92.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.561,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed Yes65c91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9966…716abacked Yes59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…65a8backed Yes59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27d4…c7e9backed Yes59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb4…abefbacked Yes59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebfb…e474backed Yes59c89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dcc2backed Yes59c87$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…31cabacked Yes59c86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c0…556bbacked Yes59c85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c76.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6423130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcdc…6eb4backed Yes33c74.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8b…fe60backed Yes59c69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes51c68.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd584…cce2backed Yes38c66.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No43c60.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1411240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa36…7d37backed Yes35c57.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…cb87backed Yes35c57.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No67c54.15$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8720668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No43c52.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.311,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacc0…3748backed No64c50.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.