Movies · resolved market
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e126ed21f3efa118122f5b2823dca3d95554140acd6520607292e1c95eb653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,175 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 18c | 569$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 18c | 520$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 14c | 313$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…0ef5backed Yes | 5c | 307.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Yes | 11c | 266.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 18c | 261$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…9483backed Yes | 21c | 243.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…1cedbacked Yes | 7c | 234.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 79c | 223.81$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 208.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 18c | 193$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 14c | 158$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681e…5394backed Yes | 15c | 139.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 121.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba7…3c46backed Yes | 13c | 97.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…0539backed Yes | 19c | 59.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd18…4783backed Yes | 23c | 51.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 76c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.