Movies · resolved market
Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64984b94f390a2278c4f72c037136a790d97e8cf3496b4cf8f9b9baf8342837d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,620 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,274$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 18c | 1,008$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 11c | 941$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed Yes | 19c | 786$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 58c | 686$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.79 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 80c | 645$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed Yes | 19c | 629$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 52c | 603.78$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.06 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 19c | 594$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff2f…b07ebacked Yes | 11c | 481.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 38c | 440.26$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 18c | 427$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +261.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 20c | 421$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 39c | 370.9$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 20c | 362$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 80c | 362$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 38c | 357.76$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 62c | 334.59$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.48 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 41c | 315.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 18c | 312$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 49c | 311$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.38 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 39c | 310$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 45c | 291.31$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.37 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 42c | 289.34$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed Yes | 18c | 279$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2c95backed No | 37c | 272.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 51c | 272.26$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ff…c822backed Yes | 29c | 269.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 45c | 264.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 21c | 262.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…1cedbacked No | 39c | 241.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 48c | 234.94$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 64c | 227.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 20c | 224$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…0cd8backed Yes | 67c | 220.83$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed Yes | 58c | 188.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 59c | 183.47$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…64debacked No | 39c | 183.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…8b98backed No | 43c | 179.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed No | 79c | 179.66$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 45c | 171$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed No | 59c | 170.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 166.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.21 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Yes | 60c | 166.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 19c | 164$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 62c | 160.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…ffc7backed No | 65c | 153.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c3…c0dcbacked No | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 61c | 147.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked No | 51c | 133.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f34…b678backed Yes | 65c | 133.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 36c | 132.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…c523backed Yes | 57c | 118.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 112.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 35c | 110.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 37c | 107$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes | 64c | 101.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b3…5880backed No | 38c | 101.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 42c | 99.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 18c | 99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…a294backed No | 39c | 97.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…9cc6backed Yes | 20c | 94.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +399.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 39c | 94.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 94.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 43c | 92.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 92.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 52c | 87.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…8b32backed Yes | 79c | 87.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 52c | 84.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…a8c9backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…6632backed No | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 50c | 78.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 77.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…26e7backed Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…ff44backed No | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…05d0backed Yes | 21c | 70.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…72fbbacked Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 19c | 67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ca…9dcebacked Yes | 64c | 62.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…04b7backed Yes | 80c | 59.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 75c | 56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…9506backed Yes | 56c | 53.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Yes | 58c | 52.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 62c | 44.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked Yes | 66c | 42.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 38c | 40.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 39.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.