Movies · resolved market
Will "Frankenstein" win Best Costume Design at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc3264e34c556f4484353338494efabd508c5cbad95a6e999a79c52d5e69a756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 67c | 1,125$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 67c | 651$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 33c | 565$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 2c | 556.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 33c | 533$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 25c | 483$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed No | 25c | 445$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 75c | 445$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 66c | 410$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 75c | 351$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 33c | 320.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 9c | 289.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked No | 33c | 222$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 192$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 185$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…9403backed No | 13c | 183.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 9c | 160.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 19c | 104.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 18.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Frankenstein" win Best Costume Design at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will "Hamnet" win Best Costume Design at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.