World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Reform" 2+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf242fb05037eaf1b25cdb991761a4cd740d561039e7bc61086d4d56793f50ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 51c | 575$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 49c | 566$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 49c | 562$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 51c | 553$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 34c | 219.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 8c | 145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 93.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 994 | 17.2%171 W · 823 L | -149.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 73c | 63.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…83e9backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 24c | 57.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…65b2backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed Yes | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…1a22backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed Yes | 77c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 2+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "Andrew" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Churchill" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Middle East" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.