World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x439112d0505fd3bba7834e841d7ffa37d384b9564ed8f7540ffe009bb57da4ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,353 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5395…9d41backed No | 76c | 811$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 24c | 704$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3dd…63c9backed Yes | 38c | 266.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 79c | 149.74$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes | 24c | 107$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 20c | 98.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 76c | 60.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked Yes | 24c | 59.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 51.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff24…437bbacked Yes | 58c | 51.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…83e9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed Yes | 26c | 49.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…65b2backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…e049backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 74c | 17.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfa…c9e7backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "Andrew" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Churchill" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Middle East" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 2+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.