NFL · resolved market
Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b9b584f434f10189bd22e70b18d39eccaa6fd9bff69c0f5f3d53ac1ba6cec4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 30c | 934$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 29c | 841$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed No | 71c | 830$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…08f5backed Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 29c | 757$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes | 29c | 753$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 70c | 687$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 71c | 592$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 71c | 477$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 29c | 475$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 71c | 450$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 29c | 333$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed Yes | 29c | 311$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 71c | 276$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 71c | 231$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 71c | 165$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed No | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 70c | 157$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 71c | 147$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 71c | 141$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 70c | 61.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ea34backed Yes | 30c | 44.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?this page
- Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Divisional Round?Yes won
- Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
- Will the Chicago Bears win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.