IPO · resolved market
Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $800M and $900M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x446a2f47c6fd111a33c2b15cd4921d58c2572648814518f9344d0e61da9fdf1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 47c | 1,328$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +132%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,275$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 54c | 1,098$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,076$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked Yes | 54c | 935$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 52c | 903$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 52c | 862$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 53c | 859$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 51c | 840$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 54c | 774$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 46c | 773$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 46c | 754$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 46c | 751$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 47c | 550$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 48c | 549$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 52c | 541$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c345backed No | 47c | 538$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 48c | 492$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 48c | 453$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 49c | 448$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +224.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 49c | 448$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 51c | 448$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 48c | 411$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 47c | 397$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked No | 48c | 271$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 46c | 269$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 46c | 210$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed No | 49c | 206$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 47c | 177$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 48c | 164$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 46c | 162$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…8372backed Yes | 54c | 159$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 139.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 53c | 127$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed No | 48c | 104$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 43c | 101$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…8499backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 13c | 89.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed No | 46c | 59.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb596…c4c4backed Yes | 54c | 59.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…3d0abacked Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2f…40c2backed Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…28c2backed Yes | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $800M and $900M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $600M and $700M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $700M and $800M at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be less than $600M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.