IPO · resolved market
Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $700M and $800M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd15fc03d6eacf585be93e25191e7cda1b32b3b14a7fef94e9236f6fca3c3550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 78c | 2,377$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.21 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 60c | 773$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 51c | 495$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 49c | 495$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 40c | 476$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 47c | 373$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 53c | 373$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 40c | 297$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 277$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 9c | 277$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 49c | 270$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 79c | 270$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 51c | 270$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 21c | 270$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed Yes | 58c | 149.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…91b8backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 31c | 94.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 56.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $700M and $800M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $600M and $700M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $800M and $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be less than $600M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.