IPO · resolved market
Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $600M and $700M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4012b5fc3c4ffdf8c0b32efa44fc4056ad5ced6894cc493de3380ba3f8b77b5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf04a…2851backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 18c | 1,587$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 45c | 894$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 55c | 809$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 20c | 651$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 80c | 493$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 20c | 493$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes | 20c | 406$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 80c | 406$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 80c | 337$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 80c | 314$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 153.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 78c | 80.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 65.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 62.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…a06cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf174…a445backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $600M and $700M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $700M and $800M at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $800M and $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be less than $600M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.