Earnings · resolved market
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ea7de4347e9b2afdd9ed05e13b904bbcda0f836071566f71e83fc50acf047c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 32c | 955.69$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.78 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 26c | 925.72$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 74c | 242$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 27c | 240$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…12adbacked Yes | 79c | 136.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 75c | 114.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 73c | 108.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 58c | 101.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 61c | 73.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…c2cbbacked Yes | 70c | 61.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4d…90dfbacked Yes | 70c | 60.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8201backed No | 40c | 36.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 42c | 24.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 67c | 23.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…82f5backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…77d9backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.