Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x916e9a4f779aacf9deab81e60841cc05dc870b7569c20d4c2379e185db1db1e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f9b…ca1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 20c | 480$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 415.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 316.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 20c | 275.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 250.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 245.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 243.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 29c | 201.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 200.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 180.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 177.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 71c | 168.21$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 158.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 152.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 69c | 142.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 70c | 130.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 65c | 116.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 29c | 112.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 109.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 10c | 105.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 102.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 28c | 98.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 36c | 94.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 92.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 83.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 27c | 80.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 79.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 76.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 32c | 74.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecb…e234backed No | 68c | 74.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 34c | 72.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 37c | 72.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 37c | 66.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 65.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 33c | 62.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 29c | 62.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 61.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 32c | 59.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 57.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 57.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 57.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed Yes | 26c | 55.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed Yes | 27c | 51.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 29c | 49.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 48.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 23c | 47.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 28c | 47.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf939…ba18backed Yes | 30c | 46.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 31c | 42.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 31c | 40.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 39.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 38.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…639bbacked No | 69c | 37.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 36.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 75c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 70c | 25.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 70c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 63c | 22.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 68c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 71c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 71c | 19.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…708ebacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbadc…89b4backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.