TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,024
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,024 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1941…deeabacked Yes2c34,451$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.851,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes1c5,128$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.422642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed No68c1,807$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes13c1,407$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3157614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes13c1,086$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5838515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No49c1,044$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.3731542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa81a…dce9backed Yes50c714.34$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3551315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-67.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x376a…d270backed No54c699.02$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.494889.6%43 W · 5 L+14.9wins+0.31per pick59cpaid+78%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed No62c637.81$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.934030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c497.9$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed Yes17c444.68$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.049333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3624216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes42c394.47$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes39c386.19$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.041,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes27c366.34$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x859c…38e4backed Yes15c359.95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.992114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb697…9c56backed Yes27c352.9$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1310924.8%27 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c336.01$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.254,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes13c329.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x663b…78d1backed Yes66c322.26$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No56c299.86$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2262555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c290.61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e7…0788backed Yes15c244.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.492133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes16c235.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.942,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes39c225$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.181,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes11c222.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2633450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No78c209.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.420838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed Yes47c206.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8222265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No75c201.21$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.372,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No45c189.98$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1744…30debacked Yes10c188$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x884f…c132backed Yes49c159.23$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.372832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda77…ca73backed Yes18c151.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+93.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No63c150.11$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4165625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes17c150.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.161,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes13c148.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes48c147.83$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes14c139.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c4…5b82backed Yes24c132.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+205%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes15c127.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1813930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No53c115.56$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3745162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes16c114.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.521,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes28c109.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3432818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c103.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c4…aec7backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes46c94.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes20c94.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed No61c93.41$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7421235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes15c91.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.561,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked Yes21c89.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7616740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes17c88.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No55c80.84$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.381,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes50c78.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.237644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes15c77.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c76.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.639,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No52c72.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8633535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9967…7a31backed Yes16c68.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.781020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes46c68.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.319047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes58c66.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3149941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes21c63.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes17c62.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.516833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes18c59.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7213732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes18c59.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7219133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No77c57.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8829770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba49…8036backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed No71c49.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.65147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No59c49.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.131,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No40c49.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6221848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No59c46.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.381,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9d…4bb2backed No45c45.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.182347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes48c44.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.528149.4%40 W · 41 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed Yes36c44.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.059162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes24c43.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5416651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes35c43.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.388252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bd1…372abacked Yes52c38.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.813164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No78c37.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.311,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No75c35.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6338961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c8…d2c8backed Yes50c34.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.341127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x272a…88cfbacked Yes37c31.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.651612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-69.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4f0…5d25backed Yes41c29.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes38c27.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6113554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d1…5369backed Yes68c25.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5afd…f9dabacked Yes57c22.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…717abacked No80c21.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.36862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick76cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No72c21.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9757232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x7d20…bbcbbacked No68c15.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124c…e9e6backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.