Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a7d54abf07529fbd1242ac929456b826c1d7ff88c347c87844ed64aa7cfbdb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 2c | 34,451$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.85 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes | 1c | 5,128$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 68c | 1,807$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.8 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,407$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 13c | 1,086$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 49c | 1,044$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.37 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed Yes | 50c | 714.34$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 54c | 699.02$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.49 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed No | 62c | 637.81$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.93 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 497.9$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 17c | 444.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 394.47$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 39c | 386.19$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 27c | 366.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed Yes | 15c | 359.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 27c | 352.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 336.01$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 329.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…78d1backed Yes | 66c | 322.26$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 56c | 299.86$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.22 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 290.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 15c | 244.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 235.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 225$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 222.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 78c | 209.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 47c | 206.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 201.21$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 45c | 189.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…30debacked Yes | 10c | 188$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 49c | 159.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…ca73backed Yes | 18c | 151.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 63c | 150.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 17c | 150.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 13c | 148.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 48c | 147.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 14c | 139.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…5b82backed Yes | 24c | 132.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +205%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 15c | 127.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 53c | 115.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 16c | 114.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 28c | 109.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 103.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…aec7backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 46c | 94.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 20c | 94.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 61c | 93.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 91.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 21c | 89.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 80.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 50c | 78.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 15c | 77.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 76.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 52c | 72.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9967…7a31backed Yes | 16c | 68.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 46c | 68.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 58c | 66.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 63.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 17c | 62.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 18c | 59.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 18c | 59.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 77c | 57.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…8036backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed No | 71c | 49.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 59c | 49.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 40c | 49.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 46.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed No | 45c | 45.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 48c | 44.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 36c | 44.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 24c | 43.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 35c | 43.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 78c | 37.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 35.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…d2c8backed Yes | 50c | 34.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272a…88cfbacked Yes | 37c | 31.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f0…5d25backed Yes | 41c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 38c | 27.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…5369backed Yes | 68c | 25.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…f9dabacked Yes | 57c | 22.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…717abacked No | 80c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 76cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 72c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…bbcbbacked No | 68c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124c…e9e6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.