TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x59c8…d2c8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 57 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Credit One Charleston Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Sofia Keninbacked Bianca Andreescu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.54
San Luis Potosi: Beibit Zhukayev vs Dan Martinbacked Dan Martin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.1
Copa Colsanitas: Katarzyna Kawa vs Tatjana Mariabacked Katarzyna Kawa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$6.01
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintsevabacked Yulia Putintseva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.79
Credit One Charleston Open: Anna Bondar vs Magdalena Frechbacked Magdalena Frech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.13
Copa Colsanitas: Panna Udvardy vs Julieta Parejabacked Panna Udvardy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56.6%+$20.51
Credit One Charleston Open: Peyton Stearns vs Ashlyn Kruegerbacked Peyton Stearns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+95.8%+$32.71
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistajabacked Despina Papamichail · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.22
Credit One Charleston Open: Iva Jovic vs Alycia Parksbacked Alycia Parks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.72
Bucharest Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex Molcanbacked Alex Molcan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$111.53
Credit One Charleston Open: McCartney Kessler vs Janice Tjenbacked Janice Tjen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.92
Sao Leopoldo: Lautaro Midon vs Juan Bautista Torresbacked Lautaro Midon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+161.9%+$85.87
Bucharest Open: Nuno Borges vs Damir Dzumhurbacked Nuno Borges · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.69
Bucharest Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Botic van de Zandschulpbacked Botic van de Zandschulp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$8.14
San Luis Potosi: Tibo Colson vs Rodrigo Pachecobacked Tibo Colson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.73
Credit One Charleston Open: Katie Volynets vs Diana Shnaiderbacked Katie Volynets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.47
Copa Colsanitas: Emiliana Arango vs Maria Lourdes Carlebacked Maria Lourdes Carle · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.93
Sao Leopoldo: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogibacked Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.98
Credit One Charleston Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Oleksandra Oliynykovabacked Oleksandra Oliynykova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.14
Copa Colsanitas: Camila Osorio vs Caroline Dolehidebacked Caroline Dolehide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.6
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Dusan Lajovicbacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$57.37
Credit One Charleston Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Caty McNallybacked Caty McNally · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.21
Credit One Charleston Open: Mayar Sherif vs Yue Yuanbacked Mayar Sherif · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.07
Copa Colsanitas: Lia Karatancheva vs Varvara Lepchenkobacked Lia Karatancheva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.39
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Ignacio Buse · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+140.1%+$63.82
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+59.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$9.45
Will Tunisia win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.3
Will Canada win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+101.8%+$37.16
Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$47.35
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+40%+$16.25
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$16.59
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.44
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.89
Hungary vs. Greece: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.92
Hungary vs. Greece: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.12
Wales vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$11.15
Norway vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+97.3%+$50.1
Norway vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+150.7%+$21.89
Will Libya win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$245.03
Will Andorra win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.83
Will Serbia win on 2026-03-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$80.08
All 17 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+89.1%+$22.3
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+60%+$13.81
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.33
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.36
Athletics vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.74
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.26
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Marinersbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$6.83
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$6.21
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.57
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$34.33
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.86
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.35
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28%+$3.68
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.85
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.09
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.34
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.39
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+33%+$15.44
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$12.3
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.71
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.78
Senators vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$11.08
Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$18.93
All 3 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qingdao Eagles vs. Tianjin Pioneersbacked Qingdao Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+40%+$26.07
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Xinjiang Flying Tigersbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$20.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Andorra vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.89
Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$21.34
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.