Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x164a5c7b91b5c95a453b770648da9045a498de52fc81c19a39ff73ee79dfab66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,424$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.64 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 806.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 795.64$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 649.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 582.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 503.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 415.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 364.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 7c | 325.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 38c | 321.57$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed Yes | 26c | 291.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 33c | 277.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 12c | 262.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 245.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 219.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 179.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 172.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 169.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 7c | 167.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 148.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 22c | 143.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 142.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 135.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 11c | 134.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 14c | 132.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 19c | 130.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 11c | 110.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 76c | 108.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 15c | 101.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 19c | 82.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 78.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 17c | 78.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 73.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 18c | 68.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 69c | 64.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 59.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 22c | 54.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 36c | 52.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 52c | 48.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 70c | 47.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…24d8backed Yes | 32c | 41.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6825…836abacked Yes | 38c | 37.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 31.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 70c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…d2c8backed Yes | 58c | 25.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 66c | 24.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.