Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd7d945440a5cad32bb506f130dc64e04262cb222ff8472eb1aa9847df610910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 17c | 1,263$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.46 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 17c | 1,118$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 35c | 786.13$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.49 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 35c | 611.41$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.53 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 24c | 599.39$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 572.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 73c | 561.31$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 18c | 544.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 20c | 490.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 372.56$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 10c | 356.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 11c | 342.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 52c | 329$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.39 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 75c | 325.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 26c | 317.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 13c | 288.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…8ed1backed No | 34c | 288.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 18c | 284.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 13c | 276.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 275.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 18c | 273.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 49c | 267.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 266.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked No | 10c | 249.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 10c | 233.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…8509backed Yes | 40c | 209.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 76c | 206.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 23c | 196.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 180.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 172.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 39c | 169.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 159.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 44c | 145.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 10c | 144.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed No | 23c | 137.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…6942backed No | 23c | 137.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 12c | 136.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed Yes | 75c | 129.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 22c | 120.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 60c | 111.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 29c | 109.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed No | 13c | 105.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 32c | 104.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 74c | 102.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 10c | 100.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 12c | 99.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 55c | 96.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 26c | 92.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 24c | 91.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 91.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 32c | 81.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 72.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…501ebacked Yes | 39c | 71.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 71.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 77c | 70.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked No | 29c | 64.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 64c | 63.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 62.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 60.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 23c | 60.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 56c | 60.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 60.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 58c | 58.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 57.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 44c | 56.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 55.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 28c | 54.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…cefebacked No | 30c | 54.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf8…8634backed No | 30c | 54.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 21c | 53.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 52c | 53.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 36c | 52.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 60c | 52.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 53c | 52.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 51.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 30c | 51.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…f45cbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 32c | 48.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 29c | 47.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked Yes | 71c | 47.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 42c | 46.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 43c | 44.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 27c | 39.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 44c | 38.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 35.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 35.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 34.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 70c | 32.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed No | 50c | 32.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.