Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7107fb5f3c62ccf980621ba9b1dc1f04410bc7f600fa824ba931e122c86e45da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 1,032$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 920.65$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 789.56$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.67 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 659.47$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.95 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 468$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 462.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 73c | 398.32$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 54c | 370.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 76c | 357.23$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 40c | 345.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 322.19$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 302.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…2b0ebacked No | 74c | 264.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 45c | 250.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 238.18$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 228.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 60c | 226.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 194.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 186.52$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 28c | 164.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…501ebacked Yes | 37c | 160.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 28c | 159.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 156.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 31c | 153.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 150.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 67c | 146.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 39c | 146.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 64c | 145.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 145.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 143.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 38c | 138.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 129.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 75c | 124.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 37c | 123.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 33c | 112.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 108.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 72c | 106.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 46c | 106.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 104.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 100.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 99.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 99.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 34c | 98.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 96.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 33c | 96.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 32c | 95.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 32c | 87.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 28c | 86.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 31c | 85.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 62c | 84.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 35c | 84.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 38c | 83.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 35c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 73c | 77.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 76.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 39c | 76.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 75.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 67c | 73.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 46c | 72.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 62c | 72.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 46c | 72.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 36c | 71.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 60c | 70.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 61c | 70.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 69.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 67.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 66.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 28c | 66.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 65.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 38c | 65.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 36c | 64.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 63.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 62.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 43c | 60.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 59.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 58.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 57.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 65c | 56.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 67c | 56.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 35c | 55.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes | 34c | 54.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 35c | 53.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 38c | 53.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 59c | 52.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 52.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…c856backed Yes | 65c | 51.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 23c | 51.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 51.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 33c | 51.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 32c | 51.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 50.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 50.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…5c73backed Yes | 25c | 46.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.