Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefb630b450bc264209fef9a27a6a94e0f54612c2f0f391f08b0629993e396bc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 2c | 7,404$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 2c | 3,881$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 2,086$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 3c | 1,936$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 2c | 1,690$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 48c | 1,633$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.33 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 9c | 876.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 3c | 615.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 73c | 531.9$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.62 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa31f…8540backed Yes | 2c | 530.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,693.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…0d99backed No | 5c | 468.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked No | 32c | 325.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 69c | 174.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 166.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 154.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 11c | 115.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 43c | 102.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 13c | 83.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.