Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83de6511247e77c34f290c011e9f6b58a5918e35a8aa4d6c4fc4e3840dfcff10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 1,825$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 16c | 989.8$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 803.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 10c | 741.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 708.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…f3c0backed No | 74c | 678.07$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 596.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 7c | 537.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed Yes | 5c | 498.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 12c | 490.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 463.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 442.28$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 12c | 425.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 347.07$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 342.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 316.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 259.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 5c | 208.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 207.17$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 9c | 197.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 11c | 193.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 11c | 184.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 180.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed Yes | 8c | 165.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 11c | 162.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 149.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 11c | 146.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 134.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 34c | 121.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 19c | 119.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…4af3backed Yes | 35c | 119.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 113.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 16c | 112.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 21c | 112.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 110.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 18c | 109.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 101.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 13c | 101.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…f45cbacked No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 15c | 96.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 19c | 96.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 33c | 91.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 91.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 15c | 91.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 90.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 14c | 88.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 88.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…6655backed Yes | 21c | 87.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 13c | 81.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb6…4b9bbacked Yes | 25c | 81.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 80.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 23c | 80.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 79.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 74.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 15c | 68.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 67.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 32c | 60.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 58.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 25c | 55.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2d…27b4backed Yes | 34c | 54.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 33c | 53.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 29c | 50.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 34c | 49.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 42.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…0166backed No | 69c | 42.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 80c | 39.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 76c | 35.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 33.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 29.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 64c | 26.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 75c | 20.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.