Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x748eb438cf07dc087e7545aa7c81e992f3606d63bd2672b7b13e5842b45548f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 24c | 28,567$6,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,818.51 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…efd2backed Yes | 0c | 13,220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes | 0c | 10,516$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes | 22c | 5,511$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 46c | 3,203$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.52 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…ec51backed Yes | 1c | 2,878$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 2,172$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 53c | 2,112$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.18 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…99f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,673$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb48…94d2backed No | 77c | 1,466$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 14c | 1,342$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.63 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 6c | 776.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.61 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 16c | 739.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.29 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 668.91$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.26 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 48c | 649.63$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.3 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 9c | 610.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.37 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 463.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 440.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 41c | 412.67$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 33c | 400$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 80c | 393.92$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.95 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 28c | 355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 335$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 15c | 313.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 308.32$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 285.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 265.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Yes | 22c | 263.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 253.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 10c | 252.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 15c | 245.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.17 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 63c | 228.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 39c | 196.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 183.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 50c | 166$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 164.03$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 9c | 148.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 13c | 138.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 135.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 35c | 133.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 28c | 133$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 129.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 71c | 128.04$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 80c | 124$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 122.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 120.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…8509backed Yes | 67c | 117.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 23c | 110.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 38c | 105.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 41c | 105.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 104.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 37c | 101.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 35c | 100.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 58c | 100.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 100.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 98.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 51c | 98.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 96.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 56c | 95.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 51c | 93.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 66c | 91.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 12c | 91.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 27c | 88.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 88.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 12c | 86.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…c036backed Yes | 20c | 86.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 43c | 85.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 85.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 25c | 77.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 75.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 14c | 74.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 71.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 62c | 71.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 29c | 71.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 40c | 69.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 68.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 19c | 65.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 29c | 63.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 62.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 47c | 60.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 45c | 56.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 46c | 55.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 36c | 52.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 53c | 52.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 29c | 51.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 41c | 51.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 49.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…2f32backed Yes | 29c | 46.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 46c | 46.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.