Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d44af553d26a04b58ce89dea5af18fbba250889c82de8ef9c62e190bc421c07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 0c | 32,711$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes | 0c | 14,370$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,094$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,577$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 5c | 881.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 835.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 741.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 676.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 670.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 14c | 643.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 4c | 535.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 5c | 458.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 399.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 6c | 386.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 379.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 17c | 350.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 9c | 285.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…d2c8backed Yes | 4c | 282.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 6c | 263.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 9c | 230.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 6c | 226.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 201.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 197.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 11c | 197.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 13c | 177.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 174.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 13c | 167.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 13c | 162.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 7c | 160.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 8c | 138.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 9c | 117.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 10c | 103.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d1bfbacked Yes | 12c | 97.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 89.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 17c | 72.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.