Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42abd5fb401f771431cc016afd9146d7c45dce2b0dc56c2a2a3a70c77e5ac4ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47c9…1b35backed Yes | 0c | 3,569$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 2,326$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes | 1c | 1,894$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 13c | 1,743$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,553$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,333$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,255$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,213$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…4c89backed Yes | 14c | 970.92$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 735.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 6c | 602.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 574.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 562.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 6c | 536.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e89…9a0bbacked Yes | 14c | 506.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 6c | 496.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 9c | 478.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 465.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 79c | 459.4$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 436.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 3c | 392.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 10c | 381.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 10c | 363.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 7c | 349.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4735backed Yes | 6c | 315.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 5c | 296.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 4c | 293.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 21c | 270.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 263.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 14c | 252.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 7c | 249.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 228.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 12c | 226.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0726…1f34backed Yes | 8c | 220.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 194.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 12c | 194.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 6c | 192.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d5…be4ebacked No | 78c | 185.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 174.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 10c | 174.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…d2c8backed Yes | 22c | 173.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 7c | 173.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 12c | 157.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…89babacked Yes | 14c | 148.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 12c | 145.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 9c | 137.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…8973backed No | 79c | 124.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 19c | 110.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 12c | 107.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 20c | 100.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…dafbbacked No | 75c | 100.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 16c | 97.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 16c | 94.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 14c | 93.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 18c | 85.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 14c | 75.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…1dc1backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 76c | 48.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 74c | 31.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 79c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.