TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd91c…4507backed Yes0c36,004$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes0c9,797$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.111752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e89…9a0bbacked Yes0c4,933$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5960%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes0c4,813$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.457126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa432…4228backed Yes11c960.6$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1350%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes19c917.05$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.194337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed Yes9c566.85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.858042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0b…2116backed Yes7c495.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.63122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes21c382.59$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c367.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.892,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes10c367.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1558422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes8c357.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.36625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes6c348.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.321,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes4c348.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.32434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes19c291.65$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.211,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes34c288.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.753644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c286.85$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked Yes6c281.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2616740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c259.46$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x476d…ceecbacked Yes14c253.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5218615.6%29 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes31c252.33$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.181,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes6c248.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8311938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c234.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.731,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1d2…c23cbacked No63c207.01$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes42c201.66$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.319541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes49c193.41$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.917416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes17c169.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.791,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes40c116.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.995139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa594…501ebacked Yes19c115.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No69c110.01$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.592,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200b…722ebacked Yes20c106.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.551838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x917f…de46backed Yes34c90.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No76c89.65$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.421,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No48c89.01$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0666141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes16c88.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9712033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes28c81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c79.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.456265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes32c77.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.813322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes33c71.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3255538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c64.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.282,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes18c64.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.579626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes52c62.73$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.353435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes16c61.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.086418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9194…9a04backed Yes33c57.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.651435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes18c56.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No74c53.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0429653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c52.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.323,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed Yes35c51.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.113959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.754,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1741733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes30c47.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1227732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c46.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.477,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes25c46.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4516336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a31…6223backed Yes32c45.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.631435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…4785backed Yes41c44.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.553243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No63c44.74$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5541767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes25c44.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes39c43.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.92123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes34c41.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.017744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes27c39.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes50c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1914632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes33c37.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.493046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaeac…e20bbacked Yes40c37.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ef5…0366backed Yes32c33.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.872339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf0…9bf5backed Yes37c33.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4890%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes34c31.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.819123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes35c30.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5313943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes35c30.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.528436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes35c30.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5218242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c70…1d71backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes35c29.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3525447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No60c28.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3757038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe744…67a8backed No68c24.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.815477.9%120 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No68c24.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7926169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c22.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.69,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d6…e647backed No60c22.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.834100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+115.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8b7…81f4backed No60c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4add…fb04backed Yes52c20.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4711844.9%53 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No74c20.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.232,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.616065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c19.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc495…b421backed No53c19.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.994953.1%26 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No79c17.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.79176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…4f55backed No60c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No64c16.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9318452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No68c16.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1427464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No79c14.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.217777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf794…aba2backed No74c14.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.782152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.