TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5331…69d8backed No28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes75c1,630$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.5848331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e7…0d71backed No4c1,260$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.141353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-25.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No14c1,244$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.458422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked No16c1,131$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.232638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c759.98$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.16,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes56c748.49$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No9c595.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2634618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No4c540.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1611151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes67c515.01$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.581,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No40c509.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.398,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c497.94$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked Yes22c453.89$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.185032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes69c351.7$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.341833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes74c327.27$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.962240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No53c311.29$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.44,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa502…4c89backed Yes65c298.76$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.841662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed No16c286.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.81140%0 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed No48c285.46$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes65c264.49$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8111146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f3…94cbbacked Yes71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51650%8 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes14c243$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.171,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes66c242.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x422a…c395backed Yes68c234.93$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.229349.5%46 W · 47 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No63c234.67$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6362555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…b09bbacked No29c232.25$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.35156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No66c206.2$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.110569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c198.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes17c197.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.7674023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes78c190$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.55050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes51c182.15$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.711,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes61c177.92$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5416437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…89babacked Yes72c175.84$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.751154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…db02backed No53c175.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.857233.3%24 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No30c172.02$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5514025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes53c162.66$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.151942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked No44c159.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58af…1250backed Yes70c158.73$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.191926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes36c157.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.811,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes18c157$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.791,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5d…5a0fbacked Yes37c145.45$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes27c142.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.183441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No72c138.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.258042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e89…9a0bbacked No20c129.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes60c128.89$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.033630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes14c128.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.531,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a25…13c1backed Yes61c127.04$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a4…5926backed Yes37c126.74$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+62.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb2…f30bbacked Yes63c125.18$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.321361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed No79c123.44$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.939344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes16c123.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d2f…bad2backed No44c122.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.435837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes21c119.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x712d…1d71backed No19c118.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.281136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes19c113$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0319123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes18c102.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…1231backed Yes49c102.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.09955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+54.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4532132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6512625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9919720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes59c99.39$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5220866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes29c98.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes45c97.79$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1622335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes38c97.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes14c96.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.782536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x178b…0c67backed Yes50c95.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.993330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f7…9939backed No34c95.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.853823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c94.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa9ef…05a3backed No71c92.06$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes73c91.77$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.614562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f87…1b6ebacked No55c90.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.253040%12 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No76c90.63$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.623557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes38c89.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.538551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c87.94$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes67c81.95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.962,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2552…c45ebacked Yes13c81.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.48580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+155.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes16c80.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No25c79.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.762,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes62c75.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.831241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes38c74.17$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0349941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes33c72.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6315626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No25c72.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.927,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Yes74c71.5$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.912864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x039c…af44backed Yes56c70.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.852231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes18c69.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.143324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No65c68.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes60c67.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3611249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes58c65.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.537744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No45c65.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.734057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes38c65.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5116320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed Yes16c63.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.758143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.527079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c62.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.323,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes18c61.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.437946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb54…4316backed Yes39c61.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No67c60.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes57c59.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9823035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3f60backed Yes51c56.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6a…cababacked No50c53.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.