TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5f87…1b6e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT3040%12 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.64
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.75
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.11
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+115.9%+$13.21
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.74
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.14
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.11
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+73.2%+$8
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$16.04
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.15
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.25
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+68%+$16.24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$8.72
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.53
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.75
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.67
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.36
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+84.2%+$19.2
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.1%+$11.98
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$4.38
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$3.61
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$9.18
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelicans vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$2.99
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.68
Grizzlies vs. Netsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.1
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$13.33
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+150%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+56.4%+$8.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$7.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+28.6%+$4.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensikbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.