TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,974,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,974,584 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cb9…32f2backed No18c150,000$27,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,639.893429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed No16c85,244$13,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,632.925945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No18c82,500$15,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,030.24228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No15c82,127$12,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,348.89831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No21c76,295$16,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,021.912941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No21c74,733$15,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,693.963132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Yes79c60,000$47,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,300.05560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No14c44,952$6,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,156.0334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes79c40,000$31,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,4001957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No19c36,828$6,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,997.324938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Yes80c36,440$29,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,436.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No16c34,506$5,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,361.055923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No21c33,020$6,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,934.25549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked No16c30,110$4,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,835.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No16c28,926$4,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,733.674524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed No19c25,711$4,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,941.4212064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No21c24,679$5,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,182.584740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No16c21,485$3,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,338.136126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No20c21,023$4,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,227.863154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed Yes80c20,771$16,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,154.292528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…c73bbacked No20c17,504$3,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,568.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2809…b26abacked No17c17,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.98850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f1…83b0backed No19c15,730$2,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1c…6535backed No12c15,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8501637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Yes79c12,160$9,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,553.710154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb44e…c2c6backed Yes77c10,000$7,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No15c9,769$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.33063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7223…5ffabacked Yes79c8,594$6,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No18c8,451$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.1516647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes79c7,063$5,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.512450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No16c6,709$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.2376234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked No17c6,328$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.7128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick34cpaid-86.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cd5…ad4cbacked No0c5,051$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Yes79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0506058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed No22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.92850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e33…5825backed Yes80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed No18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9005653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ace…95a9backed Yes80c4,977$3,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.35560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-17%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed No20c4,935$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9872931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe574…832abacked Yes79c4,831$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed No18c4,654$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed No12c4,553$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.351233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No21c4,536$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.452951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ed2…8958backed No14c4,169$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.371040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked No12c4,100$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4921947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed No18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed No15c4,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked No20c4,000$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.831764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No0c3,879$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5213139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes74c3,860$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.9853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed No14c3,725$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.51136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+50.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f5e…58efbacked No18c3,660$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No19c3,279$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.3519139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No18c3,050$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5497111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ea5…b5e6backed Yes75c2,933$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.336100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+101.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked No14c2,920$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.48037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No6c2,915$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0481732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No20c2,790$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55817251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No21c2,670$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.73145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d51…7317backed No19c2,653$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No13c2,629$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.7862452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Yes79c2,532$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.65580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5252065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed No20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No13c2,477$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.915425.9%14 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Yes79c2,368$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No13c2,287$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.491,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked No18c2,082$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.51030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x971f…160abacked No9c2,056$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes80c2,013$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.73762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed No15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed No4c1,886$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.45455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed No18c1,700$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3063066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No3c1,617$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.124341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed No18c1,561$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.961533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No21c1,547$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebc…fb65backed Yes78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3305100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x127f…8a29backed No16c1,500$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2373520%7 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed No21c1,429$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes79c1,405$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.061275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed No26c1,385$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88c9…3734backed No21c1,335$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7104…8cffbacked No14c1,307$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No3c1,300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.975623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed No22c1,264$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2781435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc1…a09ebacked No21c1,190$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a78…4353backed Yes79c1,179$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked No13c1,150$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0632…d1b7backed Yes75c1,050$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.451163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2102100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2009549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Yes79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.085771.9%41 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2aa9…422cbacked No6c900$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1773…8c09backed No20c850.5$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked No18c833.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502552%13 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked No16c822.93$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.723020%6 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked No22c800$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick26cpaid+197%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed No17c770.65$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.011258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa83…4965backed Yes80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.