Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856f1fa67c8cd4f664709e23b13b0253a2a2d9042ef94e65bcc7d029f1058317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,231 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 19c | 7,598$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.58 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 3,070$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…de94backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 2,253$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.87 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 1,963$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 13c | 1,231$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 1,132$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 10c | 1,108$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…4844backed Yes | 9c | 1,056$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f12…1937backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…b3c5backed Yes | 9c | 782.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…3a39backed Yes | 11c | 736.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 9c | 611$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…33d8backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Yes | 8c | 546.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…fc85backed Yes | 7c | 452.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 9c | 438$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 10c | 437.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…735ebacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…97ebbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…6987backed Yes | 13c | 313.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…1df7backed Yes | 10c | 305$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 8c | 285.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 10c | 256$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…12f7backed Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…a117backed Yes | 10c | 188$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes | 10c | 149.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 11c | 145.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 11c | 130.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…1c38backed Yes | 14c | 129.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…0f10backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…0bbdbacked Yes | 13c | 100.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…dd2bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-06?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.